Real estate investment trusts (Reits) are in talks with regulatory bodies - the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) - to seek changes in regulations that will allow easier access to capital. The Indian Reits Association (IRA) said it has approached the market regulator seeking to get classified as an 'equity' asset, which will open the path for their inclusion in equity indices and also make investment by mutual funds (MFs) easier. The association is also in active discussions with the RBI to allow banks to lend to a Reit.
Equity fundraising through initial public offerings (IPOs) rose 20 per cent during the financial year 2023-24 (FY24). During the period, 76 Indian corporates raised Rs 61,915 crore through main board IPOs, compared to Rs 52,116 crore mobilised by 37 IPOs in 2022-23, as disclosed by PRIME Database. However, if one excludes the mega Life Insurance Corporation (LIC) IPO, which came out in 2022-23, IPO mobilisation increased by 58 per cent from last year.
Equity mutual fund (MF) schemes have raked in Rs 46,200 crore in net lump-sum inflows in the past six months (ended February 2024), almost thrice the inflow in the previous six-month period.
The froth in the small and midcap (SMID) space is limited to a few pockets, but regulatory scrutiny could lead to sustained volatility, observe India's top-drawer wealth managers. They add that they have been advising clients to reduce their exposure to smallcaps. Anand Rathi Wealth, which manages investor wealth through mutual funds (MFs), reports that its exposure to smallcap stocks, both through MFs and directly, has decreased by nearly 7 percentage points in the past few months, now standing at 23 per cent.
In addition to regulatory actions against small and midcaps, tighter liquidity conditions are another headwind that stocks are facing this month. Market observers say advance tax outflows and capital gains-related adjustments will weigh on the markets in the near term.
'While Indian markets are indeed not inexpensive, the valuations of largecap stocks are still a considerable distance from being overstretched.'
Fund managers are keeping cash in hand amid strong inflows and elevated valuations in the small and midcap space. Stress data shows that nearly half of the schemes in the smallcap space are holding cash of 5 per cent or more at the end of February 2024. By comparison, only 20 per cent of the midcap schemes had over 5 per cent cash in their portfolio during the same period.
Jefferies has identified 11 stocks set to benefit from long-term macro trends like capital expenditures, government manufacturing initiatives, and financialisation.
The country's six largest smallcap schemes would require more than 20 days to liquidate half of their holdings, despite most of them maintaining high cash levels and having considerable exposure to more liquid largecap stocks, stress tests conducted by fund houses reveal. For midcap funds, the time required to sell half of the assets of the top six schemes varies between seven and 34 days, according to disclosures made by asset management companies. The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) had called for such tests in the face of strong inflows into smallcap and midcap funds, despite concerns over high valuations, to keep investors better informed.
Actively managed midcap and smallcap schemes that have struggled to beat the benchmark indices in the past year have managed to outperform the indices during the downturn phase. Barring a few schemes, all active funds in the two categories have managed to arrest the decline vis-a-vis the key benchmarks.
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) has asked fund houses operating smallcap funds with a large corpus to share data on their holdings in the total free float of smallcap stocks, according to sources. This is part of the stress tests that the regulator wants fund houses to undertake amid a surge in inflows into smallcap schemes and growing concerns about valuations. Free float refers to the quantum of freely available shares for trading on the stock market.
For the third month running, investors opened over four million new demat accounts in February, showing growing household confidence in stock markets and their increased risk appetite. Over 13.12 million new demat accounts have been opened in the last three months, taking the total count close to the 150-million mark. Demat accounts are needed for trading and holding shares electronically.
Equity fundraising through qualified institutional placements (QIPs) has gained traction, thanks to supportive equity markets and the need for fresh fundraising to meet capital expenditure (capex) requirements.
'...which is possible through flexicap and multicap funds.' 'The latter has a better balance between large, mid and smallcap stocks.'
'Investors should focus on largecap funds, flexicap funds, business cycle funds, or hybrid-category funds.'
It's not only the Indian markets that command a valuation premium over their global peers; shares of subsidiaries of India-listed multinational companies (MNCs) also trade at rich valuations compared to their parent companies. An analysis of 12-month forward price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) multiples of domestically listed MNCs shows that most quotes have a premium ranging from 2.1x to 6x that of their parent. Similarly, P/B, in most cases, is significantly higher in the domestic market.
The cash pile within smallcap mutual fund (MF) schemes has grown over the past few months amid a relentless rally in stocks in this space. While fund managers usually don't make cash calls, incessant inflows and valuation discomfort have forced their hand. At the end of January, the top 10 schemes had over Rs 12,160 crore in cash, compared to Rs 8,700 crore in August 2023.
'Historically, the markets tend to perform well during election years as governments aim to increase spending and call attention to growth.'
Net inflows into two of the 'lower risk' equity funds - largecaps and flexicaps - outpaced the flows into smallcap funds during January 2024 for the first time in 17 months. This is an indication that investors may now be shifting to the relatively safer largecap stocks after a sharp run up in the mid and smallcap spaces. Net inflows into large and flexicap funds were at Rs 3,730 crore last month against Rs 3,260 crore by smallcap schemes.
'We are cautious only on sub-sectors that have seen massive melt-up during the past six months.'
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